South Korean opposition wins legislative election, deepens political deadlock

South Korea’s left-leaning opposition won a decisive victory in Wednesday’s legislative election, as voters delivered a rebuke to the party of conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol.

The main opposition Democratic Party and smaller allied forces are projected to control about 184 seats in the 300-seat National Assembly, according to preliminary figures released early Thursday by the National Election Commission.

The opposition bloc is expected to fall short of a crucial two-thirds majority, however, which would have upended South Korean politics. With 200 seats, the opposition could have overridden Yoon’s legislative veto, proposed constitutional changes, and even impeached the president.

If confirmed, the results will preserve the same basic dynamic that existed before the election – meaning opposition forces can continue to obstruct the domestic agenda of Yoon, who is two years into a single, five-year presidential term.

Lee Sang-sin, who focuses on political science and public opinion at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said he expects “three years of deadlock” in Korean politics.

Since taking office, Yoon has faced significant political barriers, since opposition forces already controlled the 180 seats needed to block any attempts to delay legislative procedures.

But South Korea’s powerful presidency has given Yoon a relatively free hand in foreign policy. Yoon has used that power to move his country much closer to the United States, its longtime ally, as well as Japan, South Korea’s former colonial ruler.

Foreign policy was not a main issue in the election, which was instead dominated by allegations of corruption, intra-party divisions and fierce personal attacks.

Yoon’s overseas agenda may not be greatly affected by the election result, according to Benjamin A. Engel, research professor at the Institute of International Affairs at Seoul National University.

“The National Assembly is extremely weak when it comes to foreign policy. They can critique and complain, but Yoon doesn’t have to change unless he wants to for political reasons — which he never seems to do — for better or worse,” Engel said.

With a disappointing election result, Yoon may find more reason to prioritize foreign affairs, said Mason Richey, associate professor of international politics at Seoul’s Hankuk University of Foreign Studies.

“As a lame duck domestically, Yoon will likely focus as much or more than before on foreign policy, since that is where much of his formal power will be,” Richey said.

“The question is how much he will be able to do that, if the jockeying in his own party leads to instability in the presidential office or key ministries,” he added.

Some analysts suggest conservatives may distance themselves from Yoon, if they decide he has become a political liability closer to the next presidential election in 2027.

Yoon has seen consistently low approval ratings as he deals with issues such as rising food prices, excessive housing costs, labor disputes and a plummeting birth rate.

He has been embroiled in a series of scandals, including one involving hidden camera footage appearing to show his wife accepting a luxury Dior bag as a gift. He also has pursued criminal charges against critical journalists and media outlets at a record pace.

Final results are not expected until later Thursday. Voter turnout stood at 67%, the highest in more than three decades for a legislative election.

Lee Juhyun contributed to this report.



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